It seems the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is having very hard times these days. No wonder if they complain the current bond yield and rupee fall is all because of the U.S. Fed and Bank of Japan (BoJ). Meanwhile, RBI has got entangled in the current account deficit and inflation problem, adding more headache to it is – the fall of Indian currency against the U.S. dollar. The fall in Indian Rupee has forced FIIs to dump the G-sec (Indian Bonds), and they had dumped bonds at record level during last few trading sessions. For the FIIs there is no point to hold their investment in the Indian bond market as the U.S. 10-year bonds are looking much more attractive. Plus the weakening of Indian rupee will hurt further investments (read article from Economic Times). The yield differential of U.S. 10-yr bond with Indian debt is at one year low. According to the bond spread calculator of Bloomberg, the spread between US 10-yr bond and Indian 10-yr bond is around 504 basis point or 5 percent, it was at 7 percent, last year . It is very pertinent to mention that not only G-sec even yield for corporate bonds have also fallen in the market. Many fear the banks (PSU and private) might play the spoil sports and sell bonds in the market to book profits.
The Indian currency is down almost 10 percent since first week of May, now hovering around 59 against the dollar. Today, traders reported RBI sold dollars in the market to curb the fall of rupee but previously done acts by RBI suggests it has failed to curb the fall of rupee due to structural economic problem. Meanwhile, chief economic advisor, Raghuram Rajan believes the rupee’s fall is a temporary phenomenon. Many economists think more liquidity in the market will ease the pressure from rupee. In the coming weeks macro economic data will decide if the RBI is willing to cut the rates in July. RBI might give its stance regarding the comfort zone with rupee in the currency economic circumstances on its June 17 monthly meeting.